DOI: 10.1002/wcc.121
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-79961235434
论文题名: Use of models in detection and attribution of climate change
作者: Hegerl G ; , Zwiers F
刊名: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
ISSN: 17577780
出版年: 2011
卷: 2, 期: 4 起始页码: 570
结束页码: 591
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Earth (planet)
; Land use
; Regression analysis
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate model simulations
; Detection and attributions
; Energy balance models
; Internal climate variability
; Internal variability
; Regional climate changes
; Regional climate projections
; Response to external forcing
; Climate change
英文摘要: Most detection and attribution studies use climate models to determine both the expected 'fingerprint' of climate change and the uncertainty in the estimated magnitude of this fingerprint in observations, given the climate variability. This review discusses the role of models in detection and attribution, the associated uncertainties, and the robustness of results. Studies that use observations only make substantial assumptions to separate the components of observed changes due to radiative forcing from those due to internal climate variability. Results from observation-only studies are broadly consistent with those from fingerprint studies. Fingerprint studies evaluate the extent to which patterns of response to external forcing (fingerprints) from climate model simulations explain observed climate change in observations. Fingerprints are based on climate models of various complexities, from energy balance models to full earth system models. Statistical approaches range from simple comparisons of observations with model simulations to multi-regression methods that estimate the contribution of several forcings to observed change using a noise-reducing metric. Multi-model methods can address model uncertainties to some extent and we discuss how remaining uncertainties can be overcome. The increasing focus on detecting and attributing regional climate change and impacts presents both opportunities and challenges. Challenges arise because internal variability is larger on smaller scales, and regionally important forcings, such as from aerosols or land-use change, are often uncertain. Nevertheless, if regional climate change can be linked to external forcing, the results can be used to provide constraints on regional climate projections. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76455
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Grant Institute, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Hegerl G,, Zwiers F. Use of models in detection and attribution of climate change[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2011-01-01,2(4)