DOI: 10.1002/wcc.102
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-79961214902
论文题名: Adapting to crop pest and pathogen risks under a changing climate
作者: Sutherst R ; W ; , Constable F ; , Finlay K ; J ; , Harrington R ; , Luck J ; , Zalucki M ; P
刊名: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
ISSN: 17577780
出版年: 2011
卷: 2, 期: 2 起始页码: 220
结束页码: 237
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Crops
; Cultivation
; Geographical distribution
; Pathogens
; Population dynamics
; Risk assessment
; Adaptation strategies
; Adaptive Management
; Changing climate
; Economic importance
; Holistic approach
; Human population
; Scenario Planning
; Spatial and temporal scale
; Climate change
英文摘要: The need for pest and pathogen management will increase as the intensification of food production proceeds to feed the burgeoning human population. Climate is a significant driver of pest population dynamics, so climate change will require adaptive management strategies to cope with the altered status of pests and pathogens. A hierarchy of analytical tools is required to conduct risk assessments, inform policy and design pest management on scales from regions to landscapes and fields. Such tools include models for predicting potential geographical distributions, seasonal phenology, and population dynamics at a range of spatial and temporal scales. The level of sophistication of such models and databases will be determined by the economic importance of specific species. Many obstacles remain in the way of designing reliable adaptation strategies, and several issues that ensure continuing uncertainty are discussed. Holistic approaches that include nonclimatic drivers of change are needed to address the combination of global change variables. Changed patterns of crop production will determine the pests and pathogens that require greater effort to control. Linked crop-pest models offer the best opportunities for management of important pests and pathogens. Examples of risk assessments for pests and pathogens are illustrated mostly with cases from Australia, and guidelines for adaptation of pest and pathogen management are reviewed. The plethora of species and strains of pests and pathogens demands a parsimonious approach to risk assessment and adaptation, based on identified needs to inform management. Due to some intractable issues the best approach may often be scenario planning to design systems which will be resilient under any global change. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76473
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: The School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD, Australia; Biosciences Research Division, Department Primary Industries Victoria, PMB 15 Ferntree Gully Delivery Centre, Knoxfield, VIC, Australia; Centre for Bioenergy and Climate Change, Department of Plant and Invertebrate Ecology, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Sutherst R,W,, Constable F,et al. Adapting to crop pest and pathogen risks under a changing climate[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2011-01-01,2(2)