DOI: 10.1002/wcc.142
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-80855138230
论文题名: Attribution of climate variations and trends to human influences and natural variability
作者: Trenberth K ; E
刊名: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
ISSN: 17577780
出版年: 2011
卷: 2, 期: 6 起始页码: 925
结束页码: 930
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Global warming
; Anthropogenic components
; Bayesian statistics
; Climate variation
; Extreme weather
; Human activities
; Human influences
; Natural variability
; Science community
; Climate change
英文摘要: Past attribution studies of climate change have assumed a null hypothesis of no role of human activities. The challenge, then, is to prove that there is an anthropogenic component. I argue that because global warming is "unequivocal" and 'very likely' caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. The task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a 'prior'. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called 'Type II errors' whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76488
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Trenberth K,E. Attribution of climate variations and trends to human influences and natural variability[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2011-01-01,2(6)