DOI: 10.1002/wcc.128
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-80052242364
论文题名: Sequential climate change policy
作者: Parson E ; A ; , Karwat D
刊名: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
ISSN: 17577780
出版年: 2011
卷: 2, 期: 5 起始页码: 744
结束页码: 756
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Decision making
; Climate change policies
; Decision makers
; Global climate changes
; Knowledge state
; Multiple elements
; Scientific knowledge
; Sequential decisions
; Technological capability
; Climate change
英文摘要: Successfully managing global climate change will require a process of sequential, or iterative, decision-making, whereby policies and other decisions are revised repeatedly over multiple decades in response to changes in scientific knowledge, technological capabilities, or other conditions. Sequential decisions are required by the combined presence of long lags and uncertainty in climate and energy systems. Climate decision studies have most often examined simple cases of sequential decisions, with two decision points at fixed times and initial uncertainties that are resolved at the second decision point. Studies using this formulation initially suggested that increasing uncertainty favors stronger immediate action, while the prospect of future learning favors weaker immediate action, but subsequent work with more general formulations showed that the direction of either effect is indeterminate, depending on multiple elements of model structure and parameter values. Current issues in sequential climate decision-making include assessing responses to potential slow learning or negative learning, and examining the implications of various mechanisms by which current decision-makers may seek to influence future decisions by altering the choice sets, knowledge states, marginal costs and benefits, or default procedural requirements faced by future decision-makers. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76500
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Law School, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Parson E,A,, Karwat D. Sequential climate change policy[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2011-01-01,2(5)