DOI: 10.1002/wcc.107
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-79961215278
论文题名: Beyond 2°C: Redefining dangerous climate change for physical systems
作者: Lenton T ; M
刊名: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
ISSN: 17577780
出版年: 2011
卷: 2, 期: 3 起始页码: 451
结束页码: 461
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Aerosols
; Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Carbon
; Environmental regulations
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Land use
; Anthropogenic aerosols
; Anthropogenic interference
; Dangerous climate changes
; Global temperature change
; Heterogeneous distributions
; Radiative forcings
; Surface temperature changes
; United nations framework convention on climate changes
; Climate change
英文摘要: Most efforts to define a level of dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system are framed in terms of global annual mean surface temperature change, with 2°C above preindustrial being the most widely accepted climate policy 'target'. Yet, no actual large-scale threshold (or 'tipping point') in the climate system (of which there are probably several) has been clearly linked to 2°C global warming. Of those that can be indirectly linked to global temperature change, the dangerous levels are necessarily imprecise and vary, with estimates ranging from ∼1°C above preindustrial upwards. Some potential thresholds cannot be meaningfully linked to global temperature change, others are sensitive to rates of climate change, and some are most sensitive to spatial gradients of climate change. In some cases, the heterogeneous distributions of reflective (sulfate) aerosols, absorbing (black carbon) aerosols, and land use could be more dangerous than changes in globally well-mixed greenhouse gases. Hence, the framing of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in terms of stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations (within a time frame), is too narrow to prevent some types of DAI. To address this, a reframed policy objective is proposed; to limit the overall magnitude, rate of change, and spatial gradients of anthropogenic radiative forcing, and resultant climate change, through restriction of emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, patterns of land use, and concentrations of short-lived, as well as long-lived, greenhouse gases. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76502
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Lenton T,M. Beyond 2°C: Redefining dangerous climate change for physical systems[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2011-01-01,2(3)