DOI: 10.1002/wcc.53
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-79956262284
论文题名: A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: A perspective on high-resolution paleoclimatology
作者: Frank D ; , Esper J ; , Zorita E ; , Wilson R
刊名: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
ISSN: 17577780
出版年: 2010
卷: 1, 期: 4 起始页码: 507
结束页码: 516
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Repair
; Anthropogenic forcing
; Explicit recognition
; High-resolution reconstruction
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Medieval Warm Period
; Spatial representations
; Temperature variability
; Temperature variation
; Climate change
英文摘要: The high-resolution reconstruction of hemispheric-scale temperature variation over the past-millennium benchmarks recent warming against more naturally driven climate episodes, such as the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period, thereby allowing assessment of the relative efficacies of natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Icons of past temperature variability, as featured in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports over nearly two decades, have changed from a schematic sketch in 1990, to a seemingly well-solved story in 2001, to more explicit recognition of significant uncertainties in 2007. In this article, we detail the beginning of the movement to reconstruct large-scale temperatures, highlight major steps forward, and present our views on what remains to be accomplished. Despite significant efforts and progress, the spatial representation of reconstructions is limited, and the interannual and centennial variation are poorly quantified. Research priorities to reduce reconstruction uncertainties and improve future projections, include (1) increasing the role of expert assessment in selecting and incorporating the highest quality proxy data in reconstructions (2) employing reconstruction ensemble methodology, and (3) further improvements of forcing series. We suggest that much of the sensitivity in the reconstructions, a topic that has dominated scientific debates, can be traced back to the input data. It is perhaps advisable to use fewer, but expert-assessed proxy records to reduce errors in future reconstruction efforts. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76570
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland; Johannes Gutenberg University, Department of Geography, Mainz, Germany; Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht, Germany; University of St. Andrews, St Andrews, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Frank D,, Esper J,, Zorita E,et al. A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: A perspective on high-resolution paleoclimatology[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2010-01-01,1(4)