DOI: 10.1002/wcc.71
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-79956258964
论文题名: Climate projections and their impact on policy and practice
作者: Lemos M ; C ; , Rood R ; B
刊名: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
ISSN: 17577780
出版年: 2010
卷: 1, 期: 5 起始页码: 670
结束页码: 682
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Decision making
; Sustainable development
; Climate projection
; Decision environment
; Long-term sustainability
; Multiple stressors
; Natural scientists
; Seasonal climate forecast
; Technical solutions
; Users' perception
; Climate change
英文摘要: This article examines the relationship between projections of climate change and the responses to those projections. First, it discusses uncertainty and its role in shaping not only the production of climate projections but also the use of these projections by decision makers. We find that uncertainty critically affects the way climate projections move from useful to usable, where usefulness is defined by scientists' perception of users' needs, and usability is defined by users' perception of what knowledge can be readily applied to their decision. From the point of view of the natural scientist, we pose that there is an uncertainty fallacy, that is, a belief that the systematic reduction of uncertainty in climate projections is required in order for the projections to be used by decision makers. Second, we explore the implications of climate projections for policy and decision making, using examples from the seasonal climate forecast applications literature as an analog. We examine constraints and opportunities for their application in policy and practice and find that over-reliance on science and technical solutions might crowd out the moral imperative to do what is needed to improve livelihoods and to guarantee ecosystems' long-term sustainability. We conclude that, in the context of high uncertainty, decisionmakers should not look for 'perfect' forecasts, but seek to implement knowledge systems that integrate climate projections with other kinds of knowledge and that consider the multiple stressors that shape their decision environment. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76586
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lemos M,C,, Rood R,et al. Climate projections and their impact on policy and practice[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2010-01-01,1(5)