DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058650
论文题名: Changes in global ocean wave heights as projected using multimodel CMIP5 simulations
作者: Wang X.L. ; Feng Y. ; Swail V.R.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10398
EISSN: 1944-10129
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 3 起始页码: 1026
结束页码: 1034
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; CMIP5 simulations
; generalized extreme value distribution
; multivariate regression
; ocean wave height
; statistical downscaling
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Regression analysis
; Sea level
; Tropics
; Wind power
; CMIP5 simulations
; Generalized extreme value distribution
; Multivariate regression
; Statistical downscaling
; Wave heights
; Water waves
; climate change
; climate conditions
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; frequency analysis
; global ocean
; numerical model
; regression analysis
; Southern Hemisphere
; wave height
; wind power
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (East)
英文摘要: Ocean surface waves can be major hazards in coastal and offshore activities. However, there exists very limited information on ocean wave behavior in response to climate change, because such information is not simulated in current global climate models. This study made statistical projections of changes in ocean wave heights using sea level pressure (SLP) information from 20 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) global climate models for the 21st century. The results show significant wave height increases in the tropics (especially in the eastern tropical Pacific) and in Southern Hemisphere high latitudes (south of 45°S). Under the projected 2070-2099 climate condition of the rising high concentration pathway - the RCP8.5 scenario, the occurrence frequency of the present-day one in 10 year extreme wave heights is likely to double or triple in several coastal regions around the world. These wave height increases are primarily driven by increased SLP gradients and hence increased surface wind energy. Key Points Wave height increases are projected for the tropics and for SH high latitudes The frequency of a fixed-size extreme wave height could double or triple The projections show increased wave heights accompanied by increased variability ©2014. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84893840825&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL058650&partnerID=40&md5=e308b36a542f6542edec33472068721f
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7662
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Wang X.L.,Feng Y.,Swail V.R.. Changes in global ocean wave heights as projected using multimodel CMIP5 simulations[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(3).