| DOI: | 10.1002/2013GL058958
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| 论文题名: | Estimating the ETAS model from an early aftershock sequence |
| 作者: | Omi T.; Ogata Y.; Hirata Y.; Aihara K.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-10400
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| EISSN: | 1944-10131
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 41, 期:3 | | 起始页码: | 850
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| 结束页码: | 857
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | aftershock
; earthquake forecasting
; ETAS model
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| Scopus关键词: | Disasters
; Forecasting
; aftershock
; Aftershock sequence
; Disaster areas
; Earthquake forecasting
; Empirical features
; Epidemic-type aftershock sequences
; Estimating parameters
; ETAS models
; Earthquakes
; aftershock
; data set
; earthquake trigger
; estimation method
; forecasting method
; numerical model
; seismic anisotropy
; seismic hazard
; seismic wave
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| 英文摘要: | Forecasting aftershock probabilities, as early as possible after a main shock, is required to mitigate seismic risks in the disaster area. In general, aftershock activity can be complex, including secondary aftershocks or even triggering larger earthquakes. However, this early forecasting implementation has been difficult because numerous aftershocks are unobserved immediately after the main shock due to dense overlapping of seismic waves. Here we propose a method for estimating parameters of the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model from incompletely observed aftershocks shortly after the main shock by modeling an empirical feature of data deficiency. Such an ETAS model can effectively forecast the following aftershock occurrences. For example, the ETAS model estimated from the first 24 h data after the main shock can well forecast secondary aftershocks after strong aftershocks. This method can be useful in early and unbiased assessment of the aftershock hazard. Key Points A method for estimating the ETAS model from an early aftershock sequence The ETAS model can be well estimated from the first 1-day data of aftershocks The estimated ETAS model well forecasts the complex aftershock activity ©2014. The Authors. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84893697169&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL058958&partnerID=40&md5=977ae4b98196b6fa27fcab1ae665174a
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7664
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo Meguro-ku, Japan
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Omi T.,Ogata Y.,Hirata Y.,et al. Estimating the ETAS model from an early aftershock sequence[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(3).
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