DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058740
论文题名: The seasonal climate predictability of the Atlantic Warm Pool and its teleconnections
作者: Misra V. ; Li H.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10448
EISSN: 1944-10179
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 2 起始页码: 661
结束页码: 666
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Interannual
; Predictability
Scopus关键词: Forecasting
; Lakes
; Interannual
; Multi-model ensemble
; Predictability
; Probabilistic Skill
; Rainfall anomaly
; Seasonal climate predictability
; Seasonal rainfall
; Warm season rainfall
; Rain
; air-sea interaction
; anomaly
; climate prediction
; ensemble forecasting
; precipitation (climatology)
; seasonality
; teleconnection
; warm pool
; Mississippi Valley
; United States
英文摘要: Our study reveals that there is promising seasonal predictability of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP; defined as the area enclosed by the 28.5°C isotherm in tropical western Atlantic) and its associated teleconnections of late summer-early fall seasonal rainfall anomalies over the continental US displayed by a subset of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). We find that of the four NMME models at least two models (CFSv2 and GFDL) exhibit consistently useful deterministic and probabilistic skill in predicting the July-October (JASO) seasonal anomalies of the area of the AWP at lead times of up to four months. These two models shown are shown to beat the observed persistence skill by a significant margin at all lead times with the exception of lead time zero. The two NMME models also skillfully predict the teleconnections of the JASO AWP anomalies with the corresponding seasonal JASO rainfall anomalies in the eastern Mississippi valley. These prediction skills are significant improvement in warm season rainfall predictability over the continental US. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84892449186&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL058740&partnerID=40&md5=7aa41959853d3bd0c827823529a7bf04
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7712
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Misra V.,Li H.. The seasonal climate predictability of the Atlantic Warm Pool and its teleconnections[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(2).