DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058499
论文题名: Detection of spatially aggregated changes in temperature and precipitation extremes
作者: Fischer E.M. ; Knutti R.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10468
EISSN: 1944-10199
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 2 起始页码: 547
结束页码: 554
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate extremes
; detection
; heatwave
; heavy precipitation
Scopus关键词: Error detection
; Probability distributions
; Climate extremes
; heatwave
; Heavy precipitation
; Initial conditions
; Internal variability
; Long-term trend
; Precipitation extremes
; Regional differences
; Aggregates
; climate forcing
; climate variation
; dry season
; estimation method
; precipitation (climatology)
英文摘要: Observed trends in the intensity of hot and cold extremes as well as in dry spell length and heavy precipitation intensity are often not significant at local scales. However, using a spatially aggregated perspective, we demonstrate that the probability distribution of observed local trends across the globe for the period 1960-2010 is clearly different to what would be expected from internal variability. We detect a distinct intensification of heavy precipitation events and hot extremes. We show that CMIP5 models generally capture the observed shift in the trend distribution but tend to underestimate the intensification of heavy precipitation and cold extremes and overestimate the intensification in hot extremes. Using an initial condition experiment sampling internal variability, we demonstrate that much of the local to regional differences in trends of extremes can be explained by internal variability, which can regionally mask or amplify the forced long-term trends for many decades. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84892889029&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL058499&partnerID=40&md5=417fb77f4b9c59d25c06a13c3e2d9ce2
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7732
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Fischer E.M.,Knutti R.. Detection of spatially aggregated changes in temperature and precipitation extremes[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(2).