DOI: 10.1002/2013GB004656
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84896408788
论文题名: Potential future dynamics of carbon fluxes and pools in New England forests and their climatic sensitivities: A model-based study
作者: Tang G ; , Beckage B ; , Smith B
刊名: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
ISSN: 8866236
出版年: 2014
卷: 28, 期: 3 起始页码: 286
结束页码: 299
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate sensitivity
; heterotrophic respiration
; net ecosystem exchange
; net primary productivity
; New England
; soil carbon
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric composition
; Carbon
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Dynamics
; Ecosystems
; Forestry
; Soils
; Climate sensitivity
; Heterotrophic respiration
; Net ecosystem exchange
; Net primary productivity
; New England
; Soil carbon
; Carbon dioxide
; carbon cycle
; carbon dioxide
; carbon flux
; carbon sequestration
; climate change
; ecosystem modeling
; forest ecosystem
; future prospect
; heterotrophy
; net primary production
; soil carbon
; soil respiration
; source-sink dynamics
; twenty first century
; warming
; New England
; United States
英文摘要: Projections of terrestrial carbon (C) dynamics must account for interannual variation in ecosystem C exchange associated with climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, and species dynamics. We used a dynamic ecosystem model to (i) project the potential dynamics of C in New England forests under nine climate change scenarios (CCSs) for the 21st century and (ii) examine the sensitivity of potential C dynamics to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results indicated that forest net primary productivity (NPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (RH) averaged 428 and 279 gC/m2/yr and New England forests sequestered CO 2 by 149 gC/m2/yr in the baseline period (1971-2000). Under the nine future CCSs, NPP and RH were modeled to increase by an average rate of 0.85 and 0.56 gC/m2/yr2 during 1971-2099. The asymmetric increase in NPP and RH resulted in New England forests sequestering atmospheric CO2 at a net rate of 0.29 gC/m2/yr2 with increases in vegetation and soil C. Simulations also indicated that climate warming alone decreases NPP, resulting in a net efflux of C from forests. In contrast, increasing precipitation by itself stimulates CO 2 sequestration by forests. At the individual cell level, however, changes in temperature or precipitation can either positively or negatively affect consequent C dynamics. Elevation of CO2 levels was found to be the biggest driver for modeled future enhancement of C sequestration. Without the elevation of CO2 levels, climate warming has the potential to change New England forests from C sinks to sources in the late 21st century. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/77480
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Division of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, United States; Department of Plant Biology, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States; Geobiosphere Sciences Centre, Department of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Tang G,, Beckage B,, Smith B. Potential future dynamics of carbon fluxes and pools in New England forests and their climatic sensitivities: A model-based study[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2014-01-01,28(3)