DOI: 10.1002/2016GB005528
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85010660468
论文题名: Avoidable impacts of ocean warming on marine primary production: Insights from the CESM ensembles
作者: Krumhardt K ; M ; , Lovenduski N ; S ; , Long M ; C ; , Lindsay K
刊名: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
ISSN: 8866236
出版年: 2017
卷: 31, 期: 1 起始页码: 114
结束页码: 133
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; net primary production
; ocean warming
; phytoplankton
; RCP scenarios
Scopus关键词: anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate modeling
; diatom
; marine environment
; net primary production
; phytoplankton
; twenty first century
; Atlantic Ocean
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
; Southern Ocean
; Bacillariophyta
英文摘要: As anthropogenic emissions and warming continue to alter Earth's environment, it is essential to highlight future impacts that can be avoided through mitigation. Here we use two ensembles of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) run under the business-as-usual scenario, RCP 8.5, and the mitigation scenario, RCP 4.5, to identify avoidable impacts of anthropogenic warming on marine net primary production (NPP). We emphasize the use of ensembles so as to distinguish long-term, anthropogenic trends in marine productivity from internal variability. Twentieth century globally integrated marine NPP is 55.7 ± 1 Pg C, with much of the variability attributable to certain regions (e.g., the equatorial Pacific). CESM projections indicate that global marine NPP will drop by ∼4% by 2080 if we follow RCP 8.5, but only by 2% under RCP 4.5. The response to warming on a global scale includes compensating regional effects; NPP increases in polar and eastern equatorial Pacific waters but decreases in the Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans. The two main phytoplankton groups simulated in CESM show distinct responses: diatoms decrease their NPP, while small phytoplankton NPP increases over the mid-21st century. Trends in NPP from mid-21st century to 2080 are significantly different between the two emission scenarios mainly in the Atlantic Ocean basin and therefore impacts here are “avoidable” if we follow RCP 4.5, rather than RCP 8.5. In contrast, changes in NPP on a global scale and in most areas of the Pacific and Indian basins and the Southern Ocean are not distinguishable between forcing scenarios. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/77780
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Environmental Studies Program and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Krumhardt K,M,, Lovenduski N,et al. Avoidable impacts of ocean warming on marine primary production: Insights from the CESM ensembles[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2017-01-01,31(1)