DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058744
论文题名: The stress shadow problem in physics-based aftershock forecasting: Does incorporation of secondary stress changes help?
作者: Segou M. ; Parsons T.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10533
EISSN: 1944-10264
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 11 起始页码: 3810
结束页码: 3817
语种: 英语
英文关键词: California
; earthquake forecast
; earthquake triggering
; Loma Prieta
; stress shadow
Scopus关键词: Earthquakes
; California
; Coulomb stress changes
; Earthquake forecast
; Earthquake occurrences
; Earthquake triggering
; Loma Prieta
; Operational forecasts
; Rate-and-state frictions
; Forecasting
; aftershock
; earthquake event
; earthquake prediction
; hazard assessment
; rupture
; stress change
; stress field
英文摘要: Main shocks are calculated to cast stress shadows across broad areas where aftershocks occur. Thus, a key problem with stress-based operational forecasts is that they can badly underestimate aftershock occurrence in the shadows. We examine the performance of two physics-based earthquake forecast models (Coulomb rate/state (CRS)) based on Coulomb stress changes and a rate-and-state friction law for their predictive power on the 1989 Mw=6.9 Loma Prieta aftershock sequence. The CRS-1 model considers the stress perturbations associated with the main shock rupture only, whereas CRS-2 uses an updated stress field with stresses imparted by M≥3.5 aftershocks. Including secondary triggering effects slightly improves predictability, but physics-based models still underestimate aftershock rates in locations of initial negative stress changes. Furthermore, CRS-2 does not explain aftershock occurrence where secondary stress changes enhance the initial stress shadow. Predicting earthquake occurrence in calculated stress shadow zones remains a challenge for stress-based forecasts, and additional triggering mechanisms must be invoked. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84901726706&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL058744&partnerID=40&md5=f17a4d4c1ebe072c326b664398f6ed05
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7797
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: United States Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Segou M.,Parsons T.. The stress shadow problem in physics-based aftershock forecasting: Does incorporation of secondary stress changes help?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(11).