DOI: 10.1002/2014GB004933
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027958264
论文题名: Observing multidecadal trends in Southern Ocean CO2 uptake: What can we learn from an ocean model?
作者: Lovenduski N ; S ; , Fay A ; R ; , McKinley G ; A
刊名: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
ISSN: 8866236
出版年: 2015
卷: 29, 期: 4 起始页码: 416
结束页码: 426
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Southern Ocean
Scopus关键词: biogeochemical cycle
; biome
; carbon dioxide
; decadal variation
; ecological modeling
; hindcasting
; spatiotemporal analysis
; trend analysis
; Southern Ocean
英文摘要: We use output from a hindcast simulation (1958-2007) of an ocean biogeochemical and ecological model to inform an observational strategy for detection of a weakening Southern Ocean CO2 sink from surface ocean pCO2 data. Particular emphasis is placed on resolving disparate conclusions about the Southern Ocean CO2 sink that have been drawn from surface ocean pCO2 observation studies in the past. We find that long-term trends in ΔpCO2(pCO2oc-pCO2atm) can be used as a proxy for changes in the strength of the CO2 sink but must be interpreted with caution, as they are calculated from small differences in the oceanic and atmospheric pCO2 trends. Large interannual, decadal, and multidecadal variability in ΔpCO2 persists throughout the simulation, suggesting that one must consider a range of start and end years for trend analysis before drawing conclusions about changes in the CO2 sink. Winter-mean CO2 flux trends are statistically indistinguishable from annual-mean trends, arguing for inclusion of all available pCO2oc data in future analyses of the CO2 sink. The weakening of the CO2 sink emerges during the observed period of our simulation (1981-2007) in the subpolar seasonally stratified biome (4° C < average climatological temperature < 9° C); the weakening is most evident during periods with positive trends in the Southern Annular Mode. With perfect temporal and spatial coverage, 13 years of pCO2oc data would be required to detect a weakening CO2 sink in this biome. Given available data, it is not yet possible to detect a weakening of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink with much certainty, due to imperfect data coverage and high variability in Southern Ocean surface pCO2. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/77986
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lovenduski N,S,, Fay A,et al. Observing multidecadal trends in Southern Ocean CO2 uptake: What can we learn from an ocean model?[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2015-01-01,29(4)