DOI: 10.1002/2014GB004949
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84938768637
论文题名: Quantifying the relative importance of land cover change from climate and land use in the representative concentration pathways
作者: Davies-Barnard T ; , Valdes P ; J ; , Singarayer J ; S ; , Wiltshire A ; J ; , Jones C ; D
刊名: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
ISSN: 8866236
出版年: 2015
卷: 29, 期: 6 起始页码: 842
结束页码: 853
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change impacts
; deforestation
; land use change
; Representative Concentration Pathways
; vegetation shifts
英文摘要: Climate change is projected to cause substantial alterations in vegetation distribution, but these have been given little attention in comparison to land use in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Here we assess the climate-induced land cover changes (CILCC) in the RCPs and compare them to land use land cover change (LULCC). To do this, we use an ensemble of simulations with and without LULCC in Earth System Model HadGEM2-ES (Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model 2) - for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. We find that climate change causes an expansion poleward of vegetation that affects more land area than LULCC in all of the RCPs considered here. The terrestrial carbon changes from CILCC are also larger than for LULCC. When considering only forest, the LULCC is larger, but the CILCC is highly variable with the overall radiative forcing of the scenario. The CILCC forest increase compensates 90% of the global anthropogenic deforestation by 2100 in RCP8.5 but just 3% in RCP2.6. Overall, bigger land cover changes tend to originate from LULCC in the shorter term or lower radiative forcing scenarios and from CILCC in the longer term and higher radiative forcing scenarios. The extent to which CILCC could compensate for LULCC raises difficult questions regarding global forest and biodiversity offsetting, especially at different time scales. This research shows the importance of considering the relative size of CILCC to LULCC, especially with regard to the ecological effects of the different RCPs. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/77999
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Cabot Institute, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Davies-Barnard T,, Valdes P,J,et al. Quantifying the relative importance of land cover change from climate and land use in the representative concentration pathways[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2015-01-01,29(6)