Catchments
; Computer simulation
; Higher order statistics
; Monte Carlo methods
; Rain
; Runoff
; Statistical methods
; Testing
; Annual maximum series
; Climatic factors
; Flood frequency distributions
; Generalized extreme value
; Moment ratio
; Sample length
; Statistical hypothesis testing
; Statistical modeling
; Floods
英文摘要:
This study addresses the question of the existence of a parent flood frequency distribution on a European scale. A new database of L-moment ratios of flood annual maximum series (AMS) from 4105 catchments was compiled by joining 13 national data sets. Simple exploration of the database presents the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution as a potential pan-European flood frequency distribution, being the three-parameter statistical model that with the closest resemblance to the estimated average of the sample L-moment ratios. Additional Monte Carlo simulations show that the variability in terms of sample skewness and kurtosis present in the data is larger than in a hypothetical scenario where all the samples were drawn from a GEV model. Overall, the generalized extreme value distribution fails to represent the kurtosis dispersion, especially for the longer sample lengths and medium to high skewness values, and therefore may be rejected in a statistical hypothesis testing framework as a single pan-European parent distribution for annual flood maxima. The results presented in this paper suggest that one single statistical model may not be able to fit the entire variety of flood processes present at a European scale, and presents an opportunity to further investigate the catchment and climatic factors controlling European flood regimes and their effects on the underlying flood frequency distributions.
Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria; Department DICAM, School of Civil Engineering, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy; Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering, SUT Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia; Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, University of Bath, Bath, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Salinas J,L,, Castellarin A,et al. Regional parent flood frequency distributions in Europe - Part 1: Is the GEV model suitable as a pan-European parent?[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014-01-01,18(11)