DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-4065-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84907966249
论文题名: Effect of climate change and variability on extreme rainfall intensity-frequency-duration relationships: A case study of Melbourne
作者: Yilmaz A ; G ; , Hossain I ; , Perera B ; J ; C
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2014
卷: 18, 期: 10 起始页码: 4065
结束页码: 4076
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Extreme rainfall
; Melbourne
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate variation
; precipitation intensity
; Australia
; Melbourne
; Victoria [Australia]
英文摘要: The increased frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall events due to anthropogenic climate change, and decadal and multi-decadal climate variability question the stationary climate assumption. The possible violation of stationarity in climate can cause erroneous estimation of design rainfalls derived from extreme rainfall frequency analysis. This may result in significant consequences for infrastructure and flood protection projects since design rainfalls are essential input for design of these projects. Therefore, there is a need to conduct frequency analysis of extreme rainfall events in the context of non-stationarity, when nonstationarity is present in extreme rainfall events. A methodology consisting of threshold selection, extreme rainfall data (peaks over threshold data) construction, trend and nonstationarity analysis, and stationary and non-stationary generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) models was developed in this paper to investigate trends and non-stationarity in extreme rainfall events, and potential impacts of climate change and variability on intensity - frequency - duration (IFD) relationships. The methodology developed was successfully implemented using rainfall data from an observation station in Melbourne (Australia) for storm durations ranging from 6 min to 72 h. Although statistically significant trends were detected in extreme rainfall data for storm durations of 30min, 3 h and 48 h, statistical non-stationarity tests and non-stationary GPD models did not indicate non-stationarity for these storm durations and other storm durations. It was also found that the stationary GPD models were capable of fitting extreme rainfall data for all storm durations. Furthermore, the IFD analysis showed that urban flash flood producing hourly rainfall intensities have increased over time. © Author(s) 2014. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78106
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Sustainability and Innovation, College of Engineering and Science, Victoria University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Faculty of Science, Engineering and Technology, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Yilmaz A,G,, Hossain I,et al. Effect of climate change and variability on extreme rainfall intensity-frequency-duration relationships: A case study of Melbourne[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014-01-01,18(10)