DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-2669-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84904726512
论文题名: Global meteorological drought-Part 2: Seasonal forecasts
作者: Dutra E ; , Pozzi W ; , Wetterhall F ; , Di Giuseppe F ; , Magnusson L ; , Naumann G ; , Barbosa P ; , Vogt J ; , Pappenberger F
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2014
卷: 18, 期: 7 起始页码: 2669
结束页码: 2678
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Drought
; Stochastic systems
; European centre for medium-range weather forecasts
; Forecast evaluation
; Forecasting problems
; Global precipitation
; Meteorological drought
; Precipitation deficits
; Seasonal forecasting
; Standardized precipitation index
; Weather forecasting
英文摘要: Global seasonal forecasts of meteorological drought using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) are produced using two data sets as initial conditions: the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI); and two seasonal forecasts of precipitation, the most recent ECMWF seasonal forecast system and climatologically based ensemble forecasts. The forecast evaluation focuses on the periods where precipitation deficits are likely to have higher drought impacts, and the results were summarized over different regions in the world. The verification of the forecasts with lead time indicated that generally for all regions the least reduction on skill was found for (i) long lead times using ERAI or GPCC for monitoring and (ii) short lead times using ECMWF or climatological seasonal forecasts. The memory effect of initial conditions was found to be 1 month of lead time for the SPI-3, 4 months for the SPI-6 and 6 (or more) months for the SPI-12. Results show that dynamical forecasts of precipitation provide added value with skills at least equal to and often above that of climatological forecasts. Furthermore, it is very difficult to improve on the use of climatological forecasts for long lead times. Our results also support recent questions of whether seasonal forecasting of global drought onset was essentially a stochastic forecasting problem. Results are presented regionally and globally, and our results point to several regions in the world where drought onset forecasting is feasible and skilful. © 2014 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78188
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Group on Earth Observations, Geneva, Switzerland; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Dutra E,, Pozzi W,, Wetterhall F,et al. Global meteorological drought-Part 2: Seasonal forecasts[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014-01-01,18(7)