DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-2033-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84901974973
论文题名: Climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime of a Canadian river: Comparing uncertainties arising from climate natural variability and lumped hydrological model structures
作者: Seiller G ; , Anctil F
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2014
卷: 18, 期: 6 起始页码: 2033
结束页码: 2047
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Evapotranspiration
; Model structures
; Snow melting systems
; Stream flow
; Climate change impact
; Global circulation model
; Hydrological indicators
; Hydrological modeling
; Internal variability
; Natural climate variabilities
; Potential evapotranspiration
; Streamflow simulations
; Uncertainty analysis
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; comparative study
; evapotranspiration
; hydrograph
; hydrological modeling
; hydrological regime
; snowmelt
; streamflow
; uncertainty analysis
; Canada
英文摘要: Diagnosing the impacts of climate change on water resources is a difficult task pertaining to the uncertainties arising from the different modelling steps. Lumped hydrological model structures contribute to this uncertainty as well as the natural climate variability, illustrated by several members from the same Global Circulation Model. In this paper, the hydroclimatic modelling chain consists of twenty-four potential evapotranspiration formulations, twenty lumped conceptual hydrological models, and seven snowmelt modules. These structures are applied on a natural Canadian sub-catchment to address related uncertainties and compare them to the natural internal variability of simulated climate system as depicted by five climatic members. Uncertainty in simulated streamflow under current and projected climates is assessed. They rely on interannual hydrographs and hydrological indicators analysis. Results show that natural climate variability is the major source of uncertainty, followed by potential evapotranspiration formulations and hydrological models. The selected snowmelt modules, however, do not contribute much to the uncertainty. The analysis also illustrates that the streamflow simulation over the current climate period is already conditioned by the tools' selection. This uncertainty is propagated to reference simulations and future projections, amplified by climatic members. These findings demonstrate the importance of opting for several climatic members to encompass the important uncertainty related to the climate natural variability, but also of selecting multiple modelling tools to provide a trustworthy diagnosis of the impacts of climate change on water resources. © Author(s) 2014. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78229
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Depart. de recherche EDS en prévisions et actions hydrologiques, Université Laval, Département de génie civil et de génie des eaux, 1065, avenue de la Médecine, Québec, QC G1V0A6, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Seiller G,, Anctil F. Climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime of a Canadian river: Comparing uncertainties arising from climate natural variability and lumped hydrological model structures[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014-01-01,18(6)