DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84901471473
论文题名: Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses
作者: Harrigan S ; , Murphy C ; , Hall J ; , Wilby R ; L ; , Sweeney J
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2014
卷: 18, 期: 5 起始页码: 1935
结束页码: 1952
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Catchments
; Climate models
; Runoff
; Hydrological changes
; Hydrological system
; Multiple working hypothesis
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Parameter uncertainty
; Precipitation regimes
; Rainfall-runoff models
; Relative contribution
; Stream flow
; catchment
; drainage network
; hydrological change
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; precipitation intensity
; rainfall-runoff modeling
; streamflow
; timescale
; Ireland
英文摘要: This paper revisits a widely cited study of the Boyne catchment in east Ireland that attributed greater streamflow from the mid-1970s to increased precipitation linked to a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Using the method of multiple working hypotheses we explore a wider set of potential drivers of hydrological change. Rainfall-runoff models are used to reconstruct streamflow to isolate the effect of climate, taking account of both model structure and parameter uncertainty. The Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trend and Pettitt change point test are applied to explore signatures of change. Contrary to earlier work, arterial drainage and simultaneous onset of field drainage in the 1970s and early 1980s are now invoked as the predominant drivers of change in annual mean and high flows within the Boyne. However, a change in precipitation regime is also present in March, thereby amplifying the effect of drainage. This new explanation posits that multiple drivers acting simultaneously were responsible for the observed change, with the relative contribution of each driver dependant on the timescale investigated. This work demonstrates that valuable insights can be gained from a systematic application of the method of multiple working hypotheses in an effort to move towards more rigorous attribution, which is an important part of managing emerging impacts on hydrological systems. © Author(s) 2014. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78236
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units (ICARUS), Department of Geography, National University of Ireland Maynooth, Maynooth, Ireland; Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria; Centre for Hydrological and Ecosystem Science, Department of Geography, Loughborough University, Loughborough, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Harrigan S,, Murphy C,, Hall J,et al. Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014-01-01,18(5)