DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-915-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84896780971
论文题名: Bias correction can modify climate model simulated precipitation changes without adverse effect on the ensemble mean
作者: Maurer E ; P ; , Pierce D ; W
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2014
卷: 18, 期: 3 起始页码: 915
结束页码: 925
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric general circulation models
; Daily precipitations
; Historical periods
; Precipitation change
; Precipitation distribution
; Precipitation variability
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Seasonal precipitations
; Climate models
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Mapping
; climate classification
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; general circulation model
; mapping
; precipitation (climatology)
; seasonal variation
; simulation
; theoretical study
英文摘要: When applied to remove climate model biases in precipitation, quantile mapping can in some settings modify the simulated difference in mean precipitation between two eras. This has important implications when the precipitation is used to drive an impacts model that is sensitive to changes in precipitation. The tendency of quantile mapping to alter model-predicted changes is demonstrated using synthetic precipitation distributions and elucidated with a simple theoretical analysis, which shows that the alteration of model-predicted changes can be controlled by the ratio of model to observed variance. To further evaluate the effects of quantile mapping in a more realistic setting, we use daily precipitation output from 11 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), forced by observed sea surface temperatures, over the conterminous United States to compare precipitation differences before and after quantile mapping bias correction. The effectiveness of the bias correction is not assessed, only its effect on precipitation differences. The change in seasonal mean (winter, DJF, and summer, JJA) precipitation between two historical periods is compared to examine whether the bias correction tends to amplify or diminish an AGCM's simulated precipitation change. In some cases the trend modification can be as large as the original simulated change, though the areas where this occurs varies among AGCMs so the ensemble median shows smaller trend modification. Results show that quantile mapping improves the correspondence with observed changes in some locations and degrades it in others. While not representative of a future where natural precipitation variability is much smaller than that due to external forcing, these results suggest that at least for the next several decades the influence of quantile mapping on seasonal precipitation trends does not systematically degrade projected differences. © 2014 Author (s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78305
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Civil Engineering Dept., Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA, United States; Division of Climate, Atmospheric Science, and Physical Oceanography, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Maurer E,P,, Pierce D,et al. Bias correction can modify climate model simulated precipitation changes without adverse effect on the ensemble mean[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014-01-01,18(3)