DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-479-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84908260176
论文题名: Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: Parameter vs. climate input uncertainty
作者: Steffens K ; , Larsbo M ; , Moeys J ; , Kjellström E ; , Jarvis N ; , Lewan E
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2014
卷: 18, 期: 2 起始页码: 479
结束页码: 491
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Clay
; Climate models
; Digital storage
; Greenhouse gases
; Leaching
; Pesticides
; Soils
; Uncertainty analysis
; Agricultural productions
; Climate change impact
; Effect of parameters
; Global climate model
; Parameter uncertainty
; Probabilistic estimates
; Regional climate modeling
; Sources of uncertainty
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; data set
; parameterization
; pesticide
; probability
; regional climate
; simulation
; soil analysis
; time series
; uncertainty analysis
; Sweden
英文摘要: Assessing climate change impacts on pesticide leaching requires careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-western Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the regional climate model RCA3 were available as driven by different combinations of global climate models (GCM), greenhouse gas emission scenarios and initial states of the GCM. The future time series of weather data used to drive the MACRO model were generated by scaling a reference climate data set (1970-1999) for an important agricultural production area in south-western Sweden based on monthly change factors for 2070-2099. 30 yr simulations were performed for different combinations of pesticide properties and application seasons. Our analysis showed that both the magnitude and the direction of predicted change in pesticide leaching from present to future depended strongly on the particular climate scenario. The effect of parameter uncertainty was of major importance for simulating absolute pesticide losses, whereas the climate uncertainty was relatively more important for predictions of changes of pesticide losses from present to future. The climate uncertainty should be accounted for by applying an ensemble of different climate scenarios. The aggregated ensemble prediction based on both acceptable parameterizations and different climate scenarios has the potential to provide robust probabilistic estimates of future pesticide losses. © Author(s) 2014. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78333
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Soil and Environment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, P.O. Box 7014, Uppsala, Sweden; Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Steffens K,, Larsbo M,, Moeys J,et al. Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: Parameter vs. climate input uncertainty[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014-01-01,18(2)