DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-305-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84893099029
论文题名: Addressing drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region
作者: Törnros T ; , Menzel L
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2014
卷: 18, 期: 1 起始页码: 305
结束页码: 318
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Correlation analysis
; Hydrological modeling
; Interannual variation
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Mediterranean areas
; Multiple timescales
; Normalized difference vegetation index
; Standardized precipitation index
; Arid regions
; Climate change
; Irrigation
; Soil moisture
; Water
; Drought
; climate change
; drought stress
; hydrological modeling
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; irrigation
; NDVI
; numerical model
; precipitation (climatology)
; remote sensing
; soil moisture
; spatial resolution
; temperature effect
; timescale
; vulnerability
; Jordan River
; Mediterranean Region
英文摘要: The Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied in order to address the drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region located in the southeastern Mediterranean area. In the first step, the SPEI was derived from spatially interpolated monthly precipitation and temperature data at multiple timescales: accumulated precipitation and monthly mean temperature were considered over a number of timescales-for example 1, 3, and 6 months. To investigate the performance of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with simulated soil moisture and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from remote sensing. A comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), i.e., a drought index that does not incorporate temperature, was also conducted. The results show that the 6-month SPEI has the highest correlation with simulated soil moisture and best explains the interannual variation of the monthly NDVI. Hence, a timescale of 6 months is the most appropriate when addressing vegetation growth in the semi-arid region. In the second step, the 6-month SPEI was derived from three climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031-2060 with 1961-1990, it is shown that the percentage of time with moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions is projected to increase strongly. To address the impact of drought on the agricultural sector, the irrigation water demand during certain drought years was thereafter simulated with a hydrological model on a spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to become even more vulnerable to drought in the future. © 2014 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78344
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Geography, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Törnros T,, Menzel L. Addressing drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014-01-01,18(1)