globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060299
论文题名:
On the skill of numerical weather prediction models to forecast atmospheric rivers over the central United States
作者: Nayak M.A.; Villarini G.; Lavers D.A.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10572
EISSN: 1944-10303
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期:12
起始页码: 4354
结束页码: 4362
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Numerical weather prediction models ; climate modeling ; climate prediction ; cyclone ; extratropical environment ; moisture transfer ; weather forecasting ; United States
英文摘要: Flooding over the central United States is responsible for large socioeconomic losses. Atmospheric rivers (ARs), narrow regions of intense moisture transport within the warm conveyor belt of extratropical cyclones, can give rise to high rainfall amounts leading to flooding. Short-term forecasting of AR activity can provide basic information toward improving preparedness for these events. This study focuses on the verification of the skill of five numerical weather prediction models in forecasting AR activity over the central United States. We find that these models generally forecast AR occurrences well at short lead times, with location errors increasing from one to three decimal degrees as the lead time increases to about 1 week. The skill (both in terms of occurrence and location errors) decreases with increasing lead time. Overall, these models are not skillful in forecasting AR activity over the central United States beyond a lead time of about 7 days. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84902236277&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060299&partnerID=40&md5=e6adc05d9fee4fcc18b40b662131173e
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7836
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: IIHR - Hydroscience and Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Nayak M.A.,Villarini G.,Lavers D.A.. On the skill of numerical weather prediction models to forecast atmospheric rivers over the central United States[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(12).
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