globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-4411-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84946231953
论文题名:
Impact of the Three Gorges Dam, the South-North Water Transfer Project and water abstractions on the duration and intensity of salt intrusions in the Yangtze River estuary
作者: Webber M; , Li M; T; , Chen J; , Finlayson B; , Chen D; , Chen Z; Y; , Wang M; , Barnett J
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期:11
起始页码: 4411
结束页码: 4425
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Abstracting ; Estuaries ; Intelligent systems ; Monte Carlo methods ; Probability ; Slope stability ; Monte Carlo simulation methods ; Operating rule ; Salt intrusion ; Short durations ; South-north water transfer projects ; Three Gorges Dam ; Water abstraction ; Yangtze River estuary ; Water resources ; discharge ; groundwater abstraction ; model test ; Monte Carlo analysis ; probability ; saline intrusion ; salinity ; spatiotemporal analysis ; water supply ; China ; Hubei ; Three Gorges Dam ; Yangtze Estuary
英文摘要: This paper assesses the impacts of the Three Gorges Dam, the South-North Water Transfer Project and other water abstractions on the probability of long-duration salt intrusions into the Yangtze River estuary. Studies of intrusions of saltwater into estuaries are typically constrained by both the short duration of discharge records and the paucity of observations of discharge and salinity. Thus, studies of intrusions of saltwater into estuaries typically seek to identify the conditions under which these intrusions occur, using detailed observations for periods of 20-60 days. The paper therefore first demonstrates a method by which to identify the conditions under which intense intrusions of long-duration occur and then applies that method to analyse the effect of the three projects. The paper constructs a model of the relationship between salinity and discharge and then employs Monte Carlo simulation methods to reconstruct the probability of observing intrusions of differing intensities and durations in relation to discharge. The model predicts that the duration of intrusions with chlorinity ≥ 250 mg Lg-1 (or ≥ 400 or 500 mg L1) increases as the number of consecutive days with discharge ≤ 12 000 m3 sg-1 (or ≤ 8000 m3 s1 increases. The model predicts that in 1950-2014, the number of consecutive days with chlorinity ≥ 250 mg Lg-1 averaged 21.34 yrg-1; if the three projects operate according to their normal rules, that average would rise to 41.20 yrg-1. For a randomly selected year of discharge history from the period 1950-2014, under normal operating rules for these projects the probability of an intrusion rises from 0.25 (for 30-day intrusions) or 0.05 (for 60-day intrusions) to 0.57 or 0.28, respectively. © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78393
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: School of Geography, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; State Key Laboratory for Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China

Recommended Citation:
Webber M,, Li M,T,et al. Impact of the Three Gorges Dam, the South-North Water Transfer Project and water abstractions on the duration and intensity of salt intrusions in the Yangtze River estuary[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(11)
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