DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-4081-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84944049243
论文题名: Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO-driven climate variability at the global scale
作者: Veldkamp T ; I ; E ; , Eisner S ; , Wada Y ; , H ; Aerts J ; C ; J ; , Ward P ; J
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 10 起始页码: 4081
结束页码: 4098
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Climate variability
; Emerging topics
; Freshwater shortage
; Global population
; Socio-economic conditions
; Southern oscillation
; Water availability
; Water scarcity conditions
; Climatology
; climate change
; consumption behavior
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; global perspective
; hydrometeorology
; precipitation (climatology)
; socioeconomic conditions
; water availability
; water use
英文摘要: Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4 % of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6 % (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1 % (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4 % (CTA) and 15.9 % (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity conditions, and the relative developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we suggest that there is potential for ENSO-based adaptation and risk reduction that could be facilitated by more research on this emerging topic. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78412
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany; Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States; Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Veldkamp T,I,E,et al. Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO-driven climate variability at the global scale[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(10)