DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-4055-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84943621081
论文题名: The effect of empirical-statistical correction of intensity-dependent model errors on the temperature climate change signal
作者: Gobiet A ; , Suklitsch M ; , Heinrich G
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 10 起始页码: 4055
结束页码: 4066
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Errors
; Uncertainty analysis
; Analytical analysis
; Bias-correction methods
; Climate simulation
; Intensity-dependent
; Model uncertainties
; Multi-model ensemble
; Temperature changes
; Temperature climate
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate signal
; data set
; empirical analysis
; ensemble forecasting
; error correction
; statistical analysis
; temperature profile
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: This study discusses the effect of empirical-statistical bias correction methods like quantile mapping (QM) on the temperature change signals of climate simulations. We show that QM regionally alters the mean temperature climate change signal (CCS) derived from the ENSEMBLES multi-model data set by up to 15 %. Such modification is currently strongly discussed and is often regarded as deficiency of bias correction methods. However, an analytical analysis reveals that this modification corresponds to the effect of intensity-dependent model errors on the CCS. Such errors cause, if uncorrected, biases in the CCS. QM removes these intensity-dependent errors and can therefore potentially lead to an improved CCS. A similar analysis as for the multi-model mean CCS has been conducted for the variance of CCSs in the multi-model ensemble. It shows that this indicator for model uncertainty is artificially inflated by intensity-dependent model errors. Therefore, QM also has the potential to serve as an empirical constraint on model uncertainty in climate projections. However, any improvement of simulated CCSs by empirical-statistical bias correction methods can only be realized if the model error characteristics are sufficiently time-invariant. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78414
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WegCenter), University of Graz, Graz, Austria; Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Department of Forecasting Models, Vienna, Austria; Department of Geography and Regional Science, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
Recommended Citation:
Gobiet A,, Suklitsch M,, Heinrich G. The effect of empirical-statistical correction of intensity-dependent model errors on the temperature climate change signal[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(10)