Catchments
; Frequency response
; Information management
; Monte Carlo methods
; Rain
; Runoff
; Water management
; Catchment classifications
; High frequency response
; Hydrological analysis
; Information contents
; Management applications
; Monte Carlo sampling
; Rainfall-runoff process
; Signature uncertainty
; Uncertainty analysis
; calibration
; catchment
; comparative study
; data set
; ecohydrology
; Monte Carlo analysis
; rainfall-runoff modeling
; uncertainty analysis
; water management
英文摘要:
Information about rainfall-runoff processes is essential for hydrological analyses, modelling and water-management applications. A hydrological, or diagnostic, signature quantifies such information from observed data as an index value. Signatures are widely used, e.g. for catchment classification, model calibration and change detection. Uncertainties in the observed data - including measurement inaccuracy and representativeness as well as errors relating to data management - propagate to the signature values and reduce their information content. Subjective choices in the calculation method are a further source of uncertainty.
We review the uncertainties relevant to different signatures based on rainfall and flow data. We propose a generally applicable method to calculate these uncertainties based on Monte Carlo sampling and demonstrate it in two catchments for common signatures including rainfall-runoff thresholds, recession analysis and basic descriptive signatures of flow distribution and dynamics. Our intention is to contribute to awareness and knowledge of signature uncertainty, including typical sources, magnitude and methods for its assessment.
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Queen's Building, University Walk, Clifton, United Kingdom; IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, P.O. Box 21060, Stockholm, Sweden; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 8602, Christchurch, New Zealand
Recommended Citation:
Westerberg I,K,, McMillan H,et al. Uncertainty in hydrological signatures[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(9)