DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-3891-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84941711517
论文题名: Climate model uncertainty versus conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling
作者: Sonnenborg T ; O ; , Seifert D ; , Refsgaard J ; C
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 9 起始页码: 3891
结束页码: 3901
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Boreholes
; Climate change
; Geologic models
; Geology
; Groundwater
; Hydrology
; Stream flow
; Travel time
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate change impact
; Distributed hydrological model
; Geological uncertainty
; Groundwater hydraulics
; Hydrological modeling
; Hydrological variables
; Individual uncertainties
; Uncertainty propagation
; Climate models
; carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; geological structure
; hydraulic head
; hydrological modeling
; streamflow
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including in CO2 emission scenarios, climate models, downscaling and impact models. The relative importance of the individual uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are forced by 11 climate model projections. Each projection of future climate is a result of a GCM-RCM model combination (from the ENSEMBLES project) forced by the same CO2 scenario (A1B). The changes from the reference period (1991-2010) to the future period (2081-2100) in projected hydrological variables are evaluated and the effects of geological model and climate model uncertainties are quantified. The results show that uncertainty propagation is context-dependent. While the geological conceptualization is the dominating uncertainty source for projection of travel time and capture zones, the uncertainty due to the climate models is more important for groundwater hydraulic heads and stream flow. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78425
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Department of Hydrology, Øster Voldgade 10, Copenhagen, Denmark; ALECTIA A/S, Water and Environment, Teknikerbyen 34, Virum, Denmark
Recommended Citation:
Sonnenborg T,O,, Seifert D,et al. Climate model uncertainty versus conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(9)