DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-3633-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940199476
论文题名: Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow
作者: Chawla I ; , Mujumdar P ; P
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 8 起始页码: 3633
结束页码: 3651
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Land use
; Rivers
; Stream flow
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water resources
; Watersheds
; Combined effect
; Emission scenario
; Future projections
; General circulation model
; Hydrologic modeling
; Land-use change
; Regional downscaling
; Variable infiltration capacities
; Climate change
; climate change
; hydrological modeling
; land use change
; river basin
; streamflow
; Ganges Basin
英文摘要: Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78439
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India; Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India
Recommended Citation:
Chawla I,, Mujumdar P,P. Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(8)