DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-2295-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929347318
论文题名: Reducing structural uncertainty in conceptual hydrological modelling in the semi-arid Andes
作者: Hublart P ; , Ruelland D ; , Dezetter A ; , Jourde H
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 5 起始页码: 2295
结束页码: 2314
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Digital storage
; Model structures
; Pareto principle
; Snow
; Conceptual modelling
; Fuzzy C means clustering
; Hydrological impacts
; Hydrological modelling
; Modelling framework
; Multi-criteria assessment
; Streamflow simulations
; Structural uncertainty
; Uncertainty analysis
; calibration
; catchment
; conceptual framework
; fuzzy mathematics
; hydrological modeling
; multicriteria analysis
; semiarid region
; snow accumulation
; snowmelt
; streamflow
; uncertainty analysis
; Andes
英文摘要: The use of lumped, conceptual models in hydrological impact studies requires placing more emphasis on the uncertainty arising from deficiencies and/or ambiguities in the model structure. This study provides an opportunity to combine a multiple-hypothesis framework with a multi-criteria assessment scheme to reduce structural uncertainty in the conceptual modelling of a mesoscale Andean catchment (1515 km2) over a 30-year period (1982-2011). The modelling process was decomposed into six model-building decisions related to the following aspects of the system behaviour: snow accumulation and melt, runoff generation, redistribution and delay of water fluxes, and natural storage effects. Each of these decisions was provided with a set of alternative modelling options, resulting in a total of 72 competing model structures. These structures were calibrated using the concept of Pareto optimality with three criteria pertaining to streamflow simulations and one to the seasonal dynamics of snow processes. The results were analyzed in the four-dimensional (4-D) space of performance measures using a fuzzy c-means clustering technique and a differential split sample test, leading to identify 14 equally acceptable model hypotheses. A filtering approach was then applied to these best-performing structures in order to minimize the overall uncertainty envelope while maximizing the number of enclosed observations. This led to retain eight model hypotheses as a representation of the minimum structural uncertainty that could be obtained with this modelling framework. Future work to better consider model predictive uncertainty should include a proper assessment of parameter equifinality and data errors, as well as the testing of new or refined hypotheses to allow for the use of additional auxiliary observations. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78523
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: UM2, UMR HydroSciences Montpellier, Place E. Bataillon, Montpellier Cedex 5, France; CNRS, UMR HydroSciences Montpellier, Place E. Bataillon, Montpellier Cedex 5, France; IRD, UMR HydroSciences Montpellier, Place E. Bataillon, Montpellier Cedex 5, France; Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA), Raúl Bitrán s/n, La-Serena, Chile
Recommended Citation:
Hublart P,, Ruelland D,, Dezetter A,et al. Reducing structural uncertainty in conceptual hydrological modelling in the semi-arid Andes[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(5)