globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-2275-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929358921
论文题名:
The question of Sudan: A hydro-economic optimization model for the Sudanese Blue Nile
作者: Satti S; , Zaitchik B; , Siddiqui S
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期:5
起始页码: 2275
结束页码: 2293
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Hydroelectric power ; Irrigation ; Optimization ; Rivers ; Sensitivity analysis ; Surface water resources ; Surface waters ; Water management ; Water supply ; Hydro-economic optimizations ; Hydrological condition ; Irrigation development ; Management decisions ; Optimization modeling ; Political implications ; Transboundary water ; Water resource infrastructure ; Water resources ; alternative agriculture ; climate change ; hydroelectric power ; optimization ; sustainable development ; water management ; water use ; Blue Nile [Nile River] ; Nile River ; Sudan
英文摘要: The effects of development and the uncertainty of a changing climate in eastern Africa pose myriad challenges for water managers along the Blue Nile. Sudan's large irrigation potential, hydroelectric dams, and prime location within the basin mean that Sudan's water management decisions will have great social, economic and political implications for the region. At the same time, Sudan's water use options are constrained by tradeoffs between upstream irrigation developments and downstream hydropower facilities as well as by the country's commitments under existing or future transboundary water sharing agreements. Here, we present a model that can be applied to evaluate optimal allocation of surface water resources to irrigation and hydropower in the Sudanese portion of the Blue Nile. Hydrologic inputs are combined with agronomic and economic inputs to formulate an optimization model within the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). A sensitivity analysis is performed by testing model response to a range of economic conditions and to changes in the volume and timing of hydrologic flows. Results indicate that changing hydroclimate inputs have the capacity to greatly influence the productivity of Sudan's water resource infrastructure. Results also show that the economically optimal volume of water consumption, and thus the importance of existing treaty constraints, is sensitive to the perceived value of agriculture relative to electricity as well as to changing hydrological conditions. © Author(s) 2015.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78524
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States; Department of Civil Engineering, Johns Hopkins Systems Institute, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States

Recommended Citation:
Satti S,, Zaitchik B,, Siddiqui S. The question of Sudan: A hydro-economic optimization model for the Sudanese Blue Nile[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(5)
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