DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929192619
论文题名: Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe
作者: Alfieri L ; , Burek P ; , Feyen L ; , Forzieri G
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 5 起始页码: 2247
结束页码: 2260
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Flood control
; Floods
; Global warming
; Hazards
; Climate change impact
; Climate projection
; Distributed hydrological model
; Hydrological extremes
; Peak over threshold
; Potential effects
; Statistical distribution
; Stream-flow events
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; flood
; global warming
; hydrological modeling
; river system
; streamflow
; Europe
英文摘要: EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Downscaling Experiment over Europe), a new generation of downscaled climate projections, has become available for climate change impact studies in Europe. New opportunities arise in the investigation of potential effects of a warmer world on meteorological and hydrological extremes at regional scales. In this work, an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCP8.5 scenarios is used to drive a distributed hydrological model and assess the projected changes in flood hazard in Europe through the current century. Changes in magnitude and frequency of extreme streamflow events are investigated by statistical distribution fitting and peak over threshold analysis. A consistent method is proposed to evaluate the agreement of ensemble projections. Results indicate that the change in frequency of discharge extremes is likely to have a larger impact on the overall flood hazard as compared to the change in their magnitude. On average, in Europe, flood peaks with return periods above 100 years are projected to double in frequency within 3 decades. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78526
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Alfieri L,, Burek P,, Feyen L,et al. Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(5)