globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-2163-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84928911469
论文题名:
Implementation and validation of a Wilks-type multi-site daily precipitation generator over a typical Alpine river catchment
作者: Keller D; E; , Fischer A; M; , Frei C; , Liniger M; A; , Appenzeller C; , Knutti R
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期:5
起始页码: 2163
结束页码: 2177
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Calibration ; Catchments ; Precipitation (meteorology) ; Random number generation ; Random processes ; Runoff ; Stochastic systems ; Time series ; Climate change scenarios ; Climate impact assessment ; Daily precipitations ; Extreme precipitation ; Precipitation characteristics ; Precipitation time series ; Spatiotemporal correlation ; Statistical downscaling ; Climate change ; climate effect ; diurnal variation ; future prospect ; implementation process ; model validation ; precipitation intensity ; Richardson number ; river basin ; spatiotemporal analysis ; time series ; Alpine County ; California ; Switzerland ; United States
英文摘要: Many climate impact assessments require high-resolution precipitation time series that have a spatio-temporal correlation structure consistent with observations, for simulating either current or future climate conditions. In this respect, weather generators (WGs) designed and calibrated for multiple sites are an appealing statistical downscaling technique to stochastically simulate multiple realisations of possible future time series consistent with the local precipitation characteristics and their expected future changes. In this study, we present the implementation and validation of a multi-site daily precipitation generator re-built after the methodology described in Wilks (1998). The generator consists of several Richardson-type WGs run with spatially correlated random number streams. This study aims at investigating the capabilities, the added value and the limitations of the precipitation generator for a typical Alpine river catchment in the Swiss Alpine region under current climate.

The calibrated multi-site WG is skilful at individual sites in representing the annual cycle of the precipitation statistics, such as mean wet day frequency and intensity as well as monthly precipitation sums. It reproduces realistically the multi-day statistics such as the frequencies of dry and wet spell lengths and precipitation sums over consecutive wet days. Substantial added value is demonstrated in simulating daily areal precipitation sums in comparison to multiple WGs that lack the spatial dependency in the stochastic process. Limitations are seen in reproducing daily and multi-day extreme precipitation sums, observed variability from year to year and in reproducing long dry spell lengths. Given the performance of the presented generator, we conclude that it is a useful tool to generate precipitation series consistent with the mean climatic aspects and likely helpful to be used as a downscaling technique for climate change scenarios. © 2015. Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78529
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Operation Center 1, 8085 Zurich-Airport, Switzerland; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitaetstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland; Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM), ETH Zurich, Universitaetstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
Keller D,E,, Fischer A,et al. Implementation and validation of a Wilks-type multi-site daily precipitation generator over a typical Alpine river catchment[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(5)
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