globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-1827-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84928552947
论文题名:
Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe
作者: Sunyer M; A; , Hundecha Y; , Lawrence D; , Madsen H; , Willems P; , Martinkova M; , Vormoor K; , Bürger G; , Hanel M; , Kriaučiuniene J; , Loukas A; , Osuch M; , Yücel I
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期:4
起始页码: 1827
结束页码: 1847
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments ; Climate models ; Precipitation (meteorology) ; Runoff ; Analysis of the variances ; Climate change impact ; Extreme precipitation ; Hydrological models ; Intercomparisons ; Perfect prognosis ; Regional climate models ; Statistical downscaling ; Climate change ; climate modeling ; downscaling ; ensemble forecasting ; extreme event ; flooding ; precipitation (climatology) ; Europe
英文摘要: Information on extreme precipitation for future climate is needed to assess the changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding. The primary source of information in climate change impact studies is climate model projections. However, due to the coarse resolution and biases of these models, they cannot be directly used in hydrological models. Hence, statistical downscaling is necessary to address climate change impacts at the catchment scale. This study compares eight statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) often used in climate change impact studies. Four methods are based on change factors (CFs), three are bias correction (BC) methods, and one is a perfect prognosis method. The eight methods are used to downscale precipitation output from 15 regional climate models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES project for 11 catchments in Europe. The overall results point to an increase in extreme precipitation in most catchments in both winter and summer. For individual catchments, the downscaled time series tend to agree on the direction of the change but differ in the magnitude. Differences between the SDMs vary between the catchments and depend on the season analysed. Similarly, general conclusions cannot be drawn regarding the differences between CFs and BC methods. The performance of the BC methods during the control period also depends on the catchment, but in most cases they represent an improvement compared to RCM outputs. Analysis of the variance in the ensemble of RCMs and SDMs indicates that at least 30% and up to approximately half of the total variance is derived from the SDMs. This study illustrates the large variability in the expected changes in extreme precipitation and highlights the need for considering an ensemble of both SDMs and climate models. Recommendations are provided for the selection of the most suitable SDMs to include in the analysis. © Author(s) 2015.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78547
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: DTU Environment, Lyngby, Denmark; Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, Potsdam, Germany; Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), Oslo, Norway; DHI, Hørsholm, Denmark; Hydraulics Laboratory, KU Leuven, Heverlee, Belgium; Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic; Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany; T. G. Masaryk Water Research Institute, Prague, Czech Republic; Lithuanian Energy Institute, Kaunas, Lithuania; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece; Department of Hydrology and Hydrodynamics, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland; Middle East Technical University, Civil Engineering Department, Ankara, Turkey

Recommended Citation:
Sunyer M,A,, Hundecha Y,et al. Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(4)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Sunyer M]'s Articles
[A]'s Articles
[, Hundecha Y]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Sunyer M]'s Articles
[A]'s Articles
[, Hundecha Y]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Sunyer M]‘s Articles
[A]‘s Articles
[, Hundecha Y]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.