DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-997-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84923633940
论文题名: Sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to 100 years of climate variability
作者: Bartholomeus R ; P ; , Stagge J ; H ; , Tallaksen L ; M ; , Witte J ; P ; M
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 2 起始页码: 997
结束页码: 1014
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Budget control
; Calibration
; Climate change
; Crops
; Errors
; Evaporation
; Extrapolation
; Global warming
; Groundwater
; Recharging (underground waters)
; Soil moisture
; Systematic errors
; Vegetation
; Atmospheric oscillations
; Climate variability
; Climatic conditions
; Empirical coefficients
; Global dimming/brightening
; Hydrological modeling
; Nonstationary signals
; Potential evaporation
; Climate models
; climate variation
; hydrological modeling
; potential evapotranspiration
; recharge
英文摘要: Hydrological modeling frameworks require an accurate representation of evaporation fluxes for appropriate quantification of, e.g., the water balance, soil moisture budget, recharge and groundwater processes. Many frameworks have used the concept of potential evaporation, often estimated for different vegetation classes by multiplying the evaporation from a reference surface ("reference evaporation") by crop-specific scaling factors ("crop factors"). Though this two-step potential evaporation approach undoubtedly has practical advantages, the empirical nature of both reference evaporation methods and crop factors limits its usability in extrapolations under non-stationary climatic conditions. In this paper, rather than simply warning about the dangers of extrapolation, we quantify the sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates for different vegetation classes using the two-step approach when calibrated using a non-stationary climate. We used the past century's time series of observed climate, containing non-stationary signals of multi-decadal atmospheric oscillations, global warming, and global dimming/brightening, to evaluate the sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to the choice and length of the calibration period. We show that using empirical coefficients outside their calibration range may lead to systematic differences between process-based and empirical reference evaporation methods, and systematic errors in estimated potential evaporation components. Quantification of errors provides a possibility to correct potential evaporation calculations and to rate them for their suitability to model climate conditions that differ significantly from the historical record, so-called no-analog climate conditions. © 2015 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78595
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: KWR, Watercycle Research Institute, P.O. Box 1072, Nieuwegein BB, Netherlands; Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047 Blindern, Oslo, Norway; VU University, Institute of Ecological Science, Department of Systems Ecology, de Boelelaan 1085, Amsterdam HV, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Bartholomeus R,P,, Stagge J,et al. Sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to 100 years of climate variability[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(2)