DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060429
论文题名: Combining regional moist static energy and ENSO for forecasting of early and late season Indian monsoon rainfall and its extremes
作者: Rajagopalan B. ; Molnar P.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10597
EISSN: 1944-10328
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 12 起始页码: 4323
结束页码: 4331
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Indian monsoon rainfall
; Moist static energy
; climate prediction
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; precipitation intensity
; spatiotemporal analysis
; water resource
; weather forecasting
; India
英文摘要: We exploit El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices and moist static energy of surface air over the Indian subcontinent and surroundings as predictors of monsoon rainfall over India during early and late seasons, defined here as 20 May to 15 June and 20 September to 15 October, respectively. Although these seasons contribute only ∼22% of the entire seasonal rainfall, they clearly affect planning of agriculture and water resources. A simple, nonlinear, statistical model applied to these predictors accounts for ∼40% and 45% of the observed variance of early and late season rainfall, respectively, and similar fractions for 3 day maximum rainfall intensity. Forecasted average and 3 day maximum rainfall at grid points covering India show greatest success over central India during the early season and over west central, northwestern, and northern India during the late season, regions where agriculture dominates land use. These predictors, however, offer virtually no predictability of peak season rainfall. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84903329730&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060429&partnerID=40&md5=a73f5b999d8202a644d35de4f8874f38
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7861
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Rajagopalan B.,Molnar P.. Combining regional moist static energy and ENSO for forecasting of early and late season Indian monsoon rainfall and its extremes[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(12).