DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-177-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84936993831
论文题名: Estimating the water needed to end the drought or reduce the drought severity in the Carpathian region
作者: Antofie T ; , Naumann G ; , Spinoni J ; , Vogt J
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 1 起始页码: 177
结束页码: 193
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Decision making
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Probability
; Recovery
; Soil moisture
; Atmospheric circulation patterns
; Climate characteristics
; Drought conditions
; Drought management
; Interannual variability
; Quantitative measures
; Self-calibrating Palmer drought severity indices
; Spatial variability
; Drought
; atmospheric circulation
; climate conditions
; drought
; hazard management
; precipitation intensity
; quantitative analysis
; soil moisture
; water management
; Carpathians
英文摘要: A drought severity climatology for the Carpathian region has been produced using the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (Sc-PDSI) for the period 1961-2010. Using the Sc-PDSI and the assumptions of the Palmer drought model (PDM) the precipitation required for drought termination (when Sc-PDSI reaches -0.5) and amelioration (when Sc-PDSI reaches -2.0) are computed for periods of 1, 3, and 6 months. We discuss the reduction of the uncertainty in the determination of the beginning and ending of drought conditions, and provide a quantitative measure of the probability that any drought could be ameliorated or terminated. We present how the spatial variability of the amount of water needed for drought recovery and the climatological probability of receiving that amount of water is determined by the local conditions against the general climate characteristics of a small area such as the Carpathian region. Regionally, the Pannonian Basin, the Transylvanian Plateau and the external Carpathian foothills and plains in the southern and eastern part of the region require the highest quantity of precipitation to recover from a drought while having the lowest climatological probabilities for such amounts of rainfall. High precipitation amounts over the northern and northwest part of the region result in higher soil moisture supplies and higher climatological probabilities to end a given drought event. Moreover, the succession and/or predominance of particular types of general atmospheric circulation patterns produce a seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability of precipitation that is quantitatively reflected in the excess of precipitation that is above normal required for drought recovery. Overall, the results of this study provide an overview on the chances of recovery from a drought period with moderate or severe drought and present information useful in decision making in water and drought management. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78645
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Ispra, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Antofie T,, Naumann G,, Spinoni J,et al. Estimating the water needed to end the drought or reduce the drought severity in the Carpathian region[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(1)