globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-5035-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85007021981
论文题名:
ICRESTRIGRS: A coupled modeling system for cascading flood-landslide disaster forecasting
作者: Zhang K; , Xue X; , Hong Y; , Gourley J; J; , Lu N; , Wan Z; , Hong Z; , Wooten R
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期:12
起始页码: 5035
结束页码: 5048
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Disaster prevention ; Disasters ; Floods ; Forecasting ; Hazards ; Landslides ; Rain ; Slope protection ; Storms ; System stability ; Coupled model systems ; Disaster preparedness ; Geotechnical modeling ; Hydrological process ; Landslide prediction ; Operational forecasting ; Predictive capabilities ; Rainfall infiltration ; Slope stability ; accuracy assessment ; flash flood ; flood forecasting ; hazard assessment ; hazard management ; hydrological modeling ; landslide ; observational method ; risk assessment ; river basin ; slope stability ; North Carolina ; United States
英文摘要: Severe storm-triggered floods and landslides are two major natural hazards in the US, causing property losses of USDĝ€6ĝ€billion and approximately 110-160 fatalities per year nationwide. Moreover, floods and landslides often occur in a cascading manner, posing significant risk and leading to losses that are significantly greater than the sum of the losses from the hazards when acting separately. It is pertinent to couple hydrological and geotechnical modeling processes to an integrated flood-landslide cascading disaster modeling system for improved disaster preparedness and hazard management. In this study, we developed the iCRESTRIGRS model, a coupled flash flood and landslide initiation modeling system, by integrating the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) model with the physically based Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) landslide model. The iCRESTRIGRS system is evaluated in four river basins in western North Carolina that experienced a large number of floods, landslides and debris flows triggered by heavy rainfall from Hurricane Ivan during 16-18 September 2004. The modeled hourly hydrographs at four USGS gauge stations show generally good agreement with the observations during the entire storm period. In terms of landslide prediction in this case study, the coupled model has a global accuracy of 98.9ĝ€% and a true positive rate of 56.4ĝ€%. More importantly, it shows an improved predictive capability for landslides relative to the stand-alone TRIGRS model. This study highlights the important physical connection between rainfall, hydrological processes and slope stability, and provides a useful prototype model system for operational forecasting of flood and landslide. © Author(s) 2016.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78660
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Cooperative Institute for Mescoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (HyDROS) Laboratory, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, Advanced Radar Research Center, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjiang, Jiangsu, China; NOAA, National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK, United States; Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, United States; North Carolina Geological Survey, North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality, Swannanoa, NC, United States

Recommended Citation:
Zhang K,, Xue X,, Hong Y,et al. ICRESTRIGRS: A coupled modeling system for cascading flood-landslide disaster forecasting[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(12)
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