DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-4819-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85004107283
论文题名: Uncertainty assessment of a dominant-process catchment model of dissolved phosphorus transfer
作者: Dupas R ; , Salmon-Monviola J ; , Beven K ; J ; , Durand P ; , Haygarth P ; M ; , Hollaway M ; J ; , Gascuel-Odoux C
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 12 起始页码: 4819
结束页码: 4835
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Biogeochemistry
; Catchments
; Data flow analysis
; Forecasting
; Groundwater
; Phosphorus
; Runoff
; Soil moisture
; Soils
; Solubility
; Distributed hydrologic model
; Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation
; Groundwater fluctuation
; Hydrological connectivity
; Key controlling factors
; Propagation of uncertainties
; Soluble reactive phosphorus
; Uncertainty assessment
; Uncertainty analysis
; biogeochemistry
; groundwater flow
; headwater
; hydrological modeling
; parameterization
; phosphorus
; soil moisture
; spatiotemporal analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; Bretagne
; France
; Morbihan
; Naizin
英文摘要: We developed a parsimonious topography-based hydrologic model coupled with a soil biogeochemistry sub-model in order to improve understanding and prediction of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) transfer in agricultural headwater catchments. The model structure aims to capture the dominant hydrological and biogeochemical processes identified from multiscale observations in a research catchment (Kervidy-Naizin, 5ĝ€km2). Groundwater fluctuations, responsible for the connection of soil SRP production zones to the stream, were simulated with a fully distributed hydrologic model at 20ĝ€m resolution. The spatial variability of the soil phosphorus content and the temporal variability of soil moisture and temperature, which had previously been identified as key controlling factors of SRP solubilization in soils, were included as part of an empirical soil biogeochemistry sub-model. The modelling approach included an analysis of the information contained in the calibration data and propagation of uncertainty in model predictions using a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) "limits of acceptability" framework. Overall, the model appeared to perform well given the uncertainty in the observational data, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency on daily SRP loads between 0.1 and 0.8 for acceptable models. The role of hydrological connectivity via groundwater fluctuation and the role of increased SRP solubilization following dry/hot periods were captured well. We conclude that in the absence of near-continuous monitoring, the amount of information contained in the data is limited; hence, parsimonious models are more relevant than highly parameterized models. An analysis of uncertainty in the data is recommended for model calibration in order to provide reliable predictions. © Author(s) 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78674
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: INRA, Agrocampus Ouest, UMR1069 SAS, Rennes, France; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Dupas R,, Salmon-Monviola J,, Beven K,et al. Uncertainty assessment of a dominant-process catchment model of dissolved phosphorus transfer[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(12)