DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-4585-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84996486579
论文题名: Evaluating performance of simplified physically based models for shallow landslide susceptibility
作者: Formetta G ; , Capparelli G ; , Versace P
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 11 起始页码: 4585
结束页码: 4603
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Calibration
; Geographic information systems
; Geology
; Groundwater
; Hydrogeology
; Hydrology
; Landslides
; Pixels
; Rain
; Sensitivity analysis
; Automatic calibration
; Goodness-of-fit indices
; Hydrological modeling
; Landslide susceptibility
; Model performance assessments
; Model sensitivity analysis
; Physically based models
; Receiver operating characteristics
; Landslide inventories
; Information management
; calibration
; geological mapping
; GIS
; hydrological modeling
; induced response
; landslide
; methodology
; numerical model
; performance assessment
; physical method
; pixel
; rainfall
; sensitivity analysis
; Calabria
; Campania [Italy]
; Cosenza
; Italy
; Reggio di Calabria
; Salerno
英文摘要: Rainfall-induced shallow landslides can lead to loss of life and significant damage to private and public properties, transportation systems, etc. Predicting locations that might be susceptible to shallow landslides is a complex task and involves many disciplines: hydrology, geotechnical science, geology, hydrogeology, geomorphology, and statistics. Two main approaches are commonly used: statistical or physically based models. Reliable model applications involve automatic parameter calibration, objective quantification of the quality of susceptibility maps, and model sensitivity analyses. This paper presents a methodology to systemically and objectively calibrate, verify, and compare different models and model performance indicators in order to identify and select the models whose behavior is the most reliable for particular case studies.The procedure was implemented in a package of models for landslide susceptibility analysis and integrated in the NewAge-JGrass hydrological model. The package includes three simplified physically based models for landslide susceptibility analysis (M1, M2, and M3) and a component for model verification. It computes eight goodness-of-fit indices by comparing pixel-by-pixel model results and measurement data. The integration of the package in NewAge-JGrass uses other components, such as geographic information system tools, to manage input-output processes, and automatic calibration algorithms to estimate model parameters. The system was applied for a case study in Calabria (Italy) along the Salerno-Reggio Calabria highway, between Cosenza and Altilia. The area is extensively subject to rainfall-induced shallow landslides mainly because of its complex geology and climatology. The analysis was carried out considering all the combinations of the eight optimized indices and the three models. Parameter calibration, verification, and model performance assessment were performed by a comparison with a detailed landslide inventory map for the area. The results showed that the index distance to perfect classification in the receiver operating characteristic plane (D2PC) coupled with the model M3 is the best modeling solution for our test case. © Author(s) 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78688
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: University of Calabria Dipartimento di Ingegneria Informatica, Modellistica, Elettronica e Sistemistica Ponte Pietro Bucci, Cubo 41/b, Rende, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Formetta G,, Capparelli G,, Versace P. Evaluating performance of simplified physically based models for shallow landslide susceptibility[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(11)