DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-4129-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84991578424
论文题名: Relative impacts of land use and climate change on summer precipitation in the Netherlands
作者: Daniels E ; , Lenderink G ; , Hutjes R ; , Holtslag A
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 10 起始页码: 4129
结束页码: 4142
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Land use
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Weather forecasting
; Circulation type classifications
; Climate change scenarios
; Clustering procedure
; Extreme precipitation
; Meteorological condition
; Precipitation intensity
; Temperature perturbations
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Climate change
; atmospheric circulation
; climate change
; future prospect
; land use change
; perturbation
; precipitation (climatology)
; precipitation assessment
; relative humidity
; summer
; weather forecasting
; Netherlands
英文摘要: The effects of historic and future land use on precipitation in the Netherlands are investigated on 18 summer days with similar meteorological conditions. The days are selected with a circulation type classification and a clustering procedure to obtain a homogenous set of days that is expected to favor land impacts. Changes in precipitation are investigated in relation to the present-day climate and land use, and from the perspective of future climate and land use. To that end, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is used with land use maps for 1900, 2000, and 2040. In addition, a temperature perturbation of +1 °C assuming constant relative humidity is imposed as a surrogate climate change scenario. Decreases in precipitation of, respectively, 3-5 and 2-5 % are simulated following conversion of historic to present, and present to future, land use. The temperature perturbation under present land use conditions increases precipitation amounts by on average 7-8 % and amplifies precipitation intensity. However, when also considering future land use, the increase is reduced to 2-6 % on average, and no intensification of extreme precipitation is simulated. In all, the simulated effects of land use changes on precipitation in summer are smaller than the effects of climate change, but are not negligible. © Author(s) 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78712
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, Wageningen, Netherlands; KNMI, Utrechtseweg 297, De Bilt, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Daniels E,, Lenderink G,, Hutjes R,et al. Relative impacts of land use and climate change on summer precipitation in the Netherlands[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(10)