DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-3325-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84983546285
论文题名: Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production
作者: Teshager A ; D ; , Gassman P ; W ; , Schoof J ; T ; , Secchi S
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 8 起始页码: 3325
结束页码: 3342
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Biofuels
; Climate models
; Crops
; Cultivation
; Hydrology
; Land use
; Plants (botany)
; Rivers
; Runoff
; Surface waters
; Water quality
; Watersheds
; Agricultural land use
; Agricultural landscapes
; Atmosphere ocean general circulation models
; Climate change scenarios
; Eco-hydrological models
; Soil and water assessment tool
; Water quality improvements
; Water quality problems
; Climate change
; agricultural land
; atmospheric general circulation model
; baseline survey
; bioenergy
; carbon emission
; climate change
; crop production
; ecohydrology
; land use change
; maize
; nutrient uptake
; water quality
; watershed
; Iowa
; Iowa
; Raccoon River
; United States
; Panicum virgatum
; Procyon
; Zea mays
英文摘要: Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists that describes the combined impacts of agricultural land use change and climate change on future bioenergy crop yields and watershed hydrology. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural land use change scenarios and three downscaled climate pathways (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) that were created from an ensemble of eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). These scenarios were implemented in a well-calibrated SWAT model for the intensively farmed and tiled Raccoon River watershed (RRW) located in western Iowa. The scenarios were executed for the historical baseline, early century, mid-century and late century periods. The results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-to-late century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid- and late 21st century. © Author(s) 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78759
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Graham Sustainability Institute, University of Michigan, 214 S State St., Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Department of Economics, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University, 560A Heady Hall, Ames, IA, United States; Geography and Environmental Resources, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, Faner Hall, Carbondale, IL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Teshager A,D,, Gassman P,et al. Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(8)