DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-2811-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84978811457
论文题名: Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections
作者: Oni S ; , Futter M ; , Ledesma J ; , Teutschbein C ; , Buttle J ; , Laudon H
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 7 起始页码: 2811
结束页码: 2825
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Runoff
; Climate change impact
; Climatic conditions
; Extreme conditions
; Forest hydrologies
; Hydroclimatic conditions
; Hydroclimatic variability
; Hydrologic modeling
; Performance metrics
; Uncertainty analysis
; calibration
; catchment
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; future prospect
; hydrological modeling
; hydrology
; proxy climate record
; runoff
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: There are growing numbers of studies on climate change impacts on forest hydrology, but limited attempts have been made to use current hydroclimatic variabilities to constrain projections of future climatic conditions. Here we used historical wet and dry years as a proxy for expected future extreme conditions in a boreal catchment. We showed that runoff could be underestimated by at least 35 % when dry year parameterizations were used for wet year conditions. Uncertainty analysis showed that behavioural parameter sets from wet and dry years separated mainly on precipitation-related parameters and to a lesser extent on parameters related to landscape processes, while uncertainties inherent in climate models (as opposed to differences in calibration or performance metrics) appeared to drive the overall uncertainty in runoff projections under dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions. Hydrologic model calibration for climate impact studies could be based on years that closely approximate anticipated conditions to better constrain uncertainty in projecting extreme conditions in boreal and temperate regions. © Author(s) 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78791
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Forest Ecol. Manage., Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeä, Sweden; Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden; Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavagen 16, Uppsala, Sweden; Department of Geography, Trent University, 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough, ON, Canada; Department of Biology, Trent University, 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough, ON, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Oni S,, Futter M,, Ledesma J,et al. Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(7)