DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-2085-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84971668061
论文题名: Uncertainty contributions to low-flow projections in Austria
作者: Parajka J ; , Paul Blaschke A ; , Blöschl G ; , Haslinger K ; , Hepp G ; , Laaha G ; , Schoner W ; , Trautvetter H ; , Viglione A ; , Zessner M
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 5 起始页码: 2085
结束页码: 2101
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Calibration
; Climate models
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water management
; Water resources
; Future climate scenarios
; Hydrological modeling
; Model uncertainties
; Projection uncertainty
; Relative contribution
; Semi-distributed hydrologic models
; Uncertainty contributions
; Waterresource management
; Climate change
; basin analysis
; calibration
; climate change
; climate modeling
; hydrological modeling
; hydrological regime
; parameterization
; prediction
; seasonality
; uncertainty analysis
; variance analysis
; water management
; Alps
; Austria
英文摘要: The main objective of the paper is to understand the contributions to the uncertainty in low-flow projections resulting from hydrological model uncertainty and climate projection uncertainty. Model uncertainty is quantified by different parameterisations of a conceptual semi-distributed hydrologic model (TUWmodel) using 11 objective functions in three different decades (1976-1986, 1987-1997, 1998-2008), which allows for disentangling the effect of the objective function-related uncertainty and temporal stability of model parameters. Climate projection uncertainty is quantified by four future climate scenarios (ECHAM5-A1B, A2, B1 and HADCM3-A1B) using a delta change approach. The approach is tested for 262 basins in Austria. The results indicate that the seasonality of the low-flow regime is an important factor affecting the performance of model calibration in the reference period and the uncertainty of Q95 low-flow projections in the future period. In Austria, the range of simulated Q95 in the reference period is larger in basins with a summer low-flow regime than in basins with a winter low-flow regime. The accuracy of simulated Q95 may result in a range of up to 60% depending on the decade used for calibration. The low-flow projections of Q95 show an increase of low flows in the Alps, typically in the range of 10-30% and a decrease in the south-eastern part of Austria mostly in the range-5 to-20% for the climate change projected for the future period 2021-2050, relative the reference period 1978-2007. The change in seasonality varies between scenarios, but there is a tendency for earlier low flows in the northern Alps and later low flows in eastern Austria. The total uncertainty of Q95 projections is the largest in basins with a winter lowflow regime and, in some basins the range of Q95 projections exceeds 60 %. In basins with summer low flows, the total uncertainty is mostly less than 20 %. The ANOVA assessment of the relative contribution of the three main variance components (i.e. climate scenario, decade used for model calibration and calibration variant representing different objective function) to the low-flow projection uncertainty shows that in basins with summer low flows climate scenarios contribute more than 75% to the total projection uncertainty. In basins with a winter low-flow regime, the median contribution of climate scenario, decade and objective function is 29, 13 and 13 %, respectively. The implications of the uncertainties identified in this paper for water resource management are discussed. © 2016 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78834
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute for Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, TU Wien, Vienna, Austria; Climate Research Department, Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Vienna, Austria; Institute for Water Quality, Resource and Waste Management, TU Wien, Vienna, Austria; Institute of Applied Statistics and Computing, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria; Department of Geography and Regional Science, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
Recommended Citation:
Parajka J,, Paul Blaschke A,, Blöschl G,et al. Uncertainty contributions to low-flow projections in Austria[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(5)