DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-1947-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84969822468
论文题名: Trends in projections of standardized precipitation indices in a future climate in Poland
作者: Osuch M ; , Romanowicz R ; J ; , Lawrence D ; , Wong W ; K
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 5 起始页码: 1947
结束页码: 1969
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Principal component analysis
; Corrected precipitation
; Global climate model
; Multiple timescales
; Precipitation data
; Regional climate modeling
; Sen's slope estimators
; Spatial resolution
; Standardized precipitation index
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; error correction
; future prospect
; global climate
; precipitation assessment
; regional climate
; spatial resolution
; standard (reference)
; time series analysis
; timescale
; Poland [Central Europe]
英文摘要: Possible future climate change effects on dryness conditions in Poland are estimated for six climate projections using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The time series of precipitation represent six different climate model runs under the selected emission scenario for the period 1971–2099. Monthly precipitation values were used to estimate the SPI for multiple timescales (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) for a spatial resolution of 25ĝ€km for the whole country. Trends in the SPI were analysed using the Mann–Kendall test with Sen's slope estimator for each grid cell for each climate model projection and aggregation scale, and results obtained for uncorrected precipitation and bias corrected precipitation were compared. Bias correction was achieved using a distribution-based quantile mapping (QM) method in which the climate model precipitation series were adjusted relative to gridded precipitation data for Poland. The results show that the spatial pattern of the trend depends on the climate model, the timescale considered and on the bias correction. The effect of change on the projected trend due to bias correction is small compared to the variability among climate models. We also summarize the mechanisms underlying the influence of bias correction on trends in precipitation and the SPI using a simple example of a linear bias correction procedure. In both cases, the bias correction by QM does not change the direction of changes but can change the slope of trend, and the influence of bias correction on SPI is much reduced. We also have noticed that the results for the same global climate model, driving different regional climate model, are characterized by a similar pattern of changes, although this behaviour is not seen at all timescales and seasons. © Author(s) 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78843
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland; Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Direc., Oslo, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Osuch M,, Romanowicz R,J,et al. Trends in projections of standardized precipitation indices in a future climate in Poland[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(5)