DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-1785-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84969705177
论文题名: High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows - Exploring the effects of forcing biases
作者: Papadimitriou L ; V ; , Koutroulis A ; G ; , Grillakis M ; G ; , Tsanis I ; K
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 5 起始页码: 1785
结束页码: 1808
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Drought
; Global warming
; Runoff
; Bias correction
; Climate change impact
; Emission scenario
; European regions
; Global climate model
; Historical hydrologies
; Observational data
; Water cycle
; Climate models
; atmospheric correction
; catchment
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; climatology
; data set
; drought
; global warming
; hydrological change
; low flow
; runoff
; Europe
英文摘要: Climate models project a much more substantial warming than the 2ĝ€°C target under the more probable emission scenarios, making higher-end scenarios increasingly plausible. Freshwater availability under such conditions is a key issue of concern. In this study, an ensemble of Euro-CORDEX projections under RCP8.5 is used to assess the mean and low hydrological states under +4 °C of global warming for the European region. Five major European catchments were analysed in terms of future drought climatology and the impact of +2 °C versus +4 °C global warming was investigated. The effect of bias correction of the climate model outputs and the observations used for this adjustment was also quantified. Projections indicate an intensification of the water cycle at higher levels of warming. Even for areas where the average state may not considerably be affected, low flows are expected to reduce, leading to changes in the number of dry days and thus drought climatology. The identified increasing or decreasing runoff trends are substantially intensified when moving from the +2 to the +4° of global warming. Bias correction resulted in an improved representation of the historical hydrology. It is also found that the selection of the observational data set for the application of the bias correction has an impact on the projected signal that could be of the same order of magnitude to the selection of the Global Climate Model (GCM). © Author(s) 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78853
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Technical University of Crete, School of Environmental Engineering, Chania, Greece; McMaster University, Department of Civil Engineering, Hamilton, ON, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Papadimitriou L,V,, Koutroulis A,et al. High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows - Exploring the effects of forcing biases[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(5)