DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-1681-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84969822677
论文题名: Trends and abrupt changes in 104 years of ice cover and water temperature in a dimictic lake in response to air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity drivers
作者: Magee M ; R ; , Wu C ; H ; , Robertson D ; M ; , Lathrop R ; C ; , Hamilton D ; P
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 5 起始页码: 1681
结束页码: 1702
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Lakes
; Speed
; Temperature
; Wind
; Air temperature
; Correlation analysis
; Driving variables
; Meteorological condition
; Model simulation
; Thermal regimes
; Thermal structure
; Water temperatures
; Ice
; air temperature
; El Nino
; epilimnion
; hypolimnion
; ice cover
; ice thickness
; long-term change
; meteorology
; numerical model
; one-dimensional modeling
; paleotemperature
; temperature effect
; thermal regime
; turnover
; water temperature
; wind velocity
; Lake Mendota
; United States
; Wisconsin
英文摘要: The one-dimensional hydrodynamic ice model, DYRESM-WQ-I, was modified to simulate ice cover and thermal structure of dimictic Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA, over a continuous 104-year period (1911-2014). The model results were then used to examine the drivers of changes in ice cover and water temperature, focusing on the responses to shifts in air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity at multiyear timescales. Observations of the drivers include a change in the trend of warming air temperatures from 0.081°C per decade before 1981 to 0.334°C per decade thereafter, as well as a shift in mean wind speed from 4.44ms-1 before 1994 to 3.74ms-1 thereafter. Observations show that Lake Mendota has experienced significant changes in ice cover: later ice-on date(9.0 days later per century), earlier ice-off date (12.3 days per century), decreasing ice cover duration (21.3 days per century), while model simulations indicate a change in maximum ice thickness (12.7cm decrease per century). Model simulations also show changes in the lake thermal regime of earlier stratification onset (12.3 days per century), later fall turnover (14.6 days per century), longer stratification duration (26.8 days per century), and decreasing summer hypolimnetic temperatures (-1.4°C per century). Correlation analysis of lake variables and driving variables revealed ice cover variables, stratification onset, epilimnetic temperature, and hypolimnetic temperature were most closely correlated with air temperature, whereas freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic heating, and fall turnover date were more closely correlated with wind speed. Each lake variable (i.e., ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, maximum ice thickness, freeze-over water temperature, stratification onset, fall turnover date, stratification duration, epilimnion temperature, hypolimnion temperature, and hypolimnetic heating) was averaged for the three periods (1911-1980, 1981-1993, and 1994-2014) delineated by abrupt changes in air temperature and wind speed. Average summer hypolimnetic temperature and fall turnover date exhibit significant differences between the third period and the first two periods. Changes in ice cover (ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) exhibit an abrupt change after 1994, which was related in part to the warm El Niño winter of 1997-1998. Under-ice water temperature, freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic temperature, fall turnover date, and stratification duration demonstrate a significant difference in the third period (1994-2014), when air temperature was warmest and wind speeds decreased rather abruptly. The trends in ice cover and water temperature demonstrate responses to both long-term and abrupt changes in meteorological conditions that can be complemented with numerical modeling to better understand how these variables will respond in a future climate. © Author(s) 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78858
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Wisconsin Water Science Center, US Geological Survey, Middleton, WI, United States; Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Environmental Research Institute, University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand
Recommended Citation:
Magee M,R,, Wu C,et al. Trends and abrupt changes in 104 years of ice cover and water temperature in a dimictic lake in response to air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity drivers[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(5)