DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-1387-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84966373180
论文题名: Downscaling future precipitation extremes to urban hydrology scales using a spatio-temporal Neyman-Scott weather generator
作者: Sørup H ; J ; D ; , Christensen O ; B ; , Arnbjerg-Nielsen K ; , Mikkelsen P ; S
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 4 起始页码: 1387
结束页码: 1403
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Gages
; Hydrology
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Rain gages
; Time series
; Downscaling climate change
; Extreme precipitation
; Precipitation extremes
; Precipitation time series
; Regional climate models
; Spatial resolution
; Temporal resolution
; Tipping bucket rain gauge
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; hydrological modeling
; perturbation
; precipitation (climatology)
; raingauge
; regional climate
; resolution
; simulation
; spatiotemporal analysis
; time series
; urban area
英文摘要: Spatio-temporal precipitation is modelled for urban application at 1 h temporal resolution on a 2 km grid using a spatio-temporal Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses weather generator (WG). Precipitation time series used as input to the WG are obtained from a network of 60 tipping-bucket rain gauges irregularly placed in a 40 km x 60 km model domain. The WG simulates precipitation time series that are comparable to the observations with respect to extreme precipitation statistics. The WG is used for downscaling climate change signals from regional climate models (RCMs) with spatial resolutions of 25 and 8 km, respectively. Six different RCM simulation pairs are used to perturb the WG with climate change signals resulting in six very different perturbation schemes. All perturbed WGs result in more extreme precipitation at the sub-daily to multi-daily level and these extremes exhibit a much more realistic spatial pattern than what is observed in RCM precipitation output. The WG seems to correlate increased extreme intensities with an increased spatial extent of the extremes meaning that the climate-change-perturbed extremes have a larger spatial extent than those of the present climate. Overall, the WG produces robust results and is seen as a reliable procedure for downscaling RCM precipitation output for use in urban hydrology. © Author(s) 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78874
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Urban Water Systems Section, Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark; Section for Climate and Arctic, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Recommended Citation:
Sørup H,J,D,et al. Downscaling future precipitation extremes to urban hydrology scales using a spatio-temporal Neyman-Scott weather generator[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(4)